A transparent bridge from the selected trade flow to a modeled consumer purchase. It estimates gross value at each stage—not profit.
Observed BACI dataModeled assumption
Selected trade flow
Interpretation boundary. The observed trade figures above are annual country-pair averages measured at the border using CEPII BACI data. They do not identify the farm, grade, contract, firm, blend, or retail outlet. Every downstream allocation is a scenario based on editable inputs. Distribution and retail are modeled as separate roles even when one vertically integrated firm performs both.
