Share of wells estimated insolvent
Click a point to open that year's operator detail.
Method, inputs, and sources
Starting production uses the larger of prior-12 production or latest daily production annualized. Reported decline observations are converted to annual-equivalent rates. Positive annual profit is projected through 2076 and discounted to each reporting year at 10%. Cleanup uses Average, with a Low_Total/High_Total midpoint fallback.
Key model assumptions: oil $80 CAD/bbl constant real; gas $4.03 CAD/Mcf in 2026 rising to $4.61 in 2034, then constant real; variable costs $25/bbl and $1.50/Mcf; fixed cost $25,000/well-year; revenue burden 20%.
- Well identifiers, operator, production, decline, cleanup estimatesENTITY_ID/API_NO; CURR_OPER_NAME; PRIOR12_LIQ/GAS; LATEST_LIQ/GAS; DECL_*; Average with Low_Total/High_Total fallbackALDP_Results.csv
- Cleanup-cost methodologyThe local Average field is used for this pass. AER Directive 011 supports location-, depth-, and completion-sensitive liability estimation and cautions that estimated and actual costs can differ.AER Directive 011: Estimated Liability (August 2025)
- Oil price80.00 CAD/bbl, constant real, 2026-2076CER Energy Future 2026 scenarios; first-pass model translation
- Natural-gas price4.03 CAD/Mcf in 2026, rising linearly to 4.61 CAD/Mcf in 2034, then constant real through 2076AER Alberta Energy Outlook 2025 AECO-C forecast
- Operating-cost categories25 CAD/bbl liquid variable, 1.50 CAD/Mcf gas variable, 25,000 CAD/well-year fixed, plus 20% of revenueAER ST98 crude-oil and natural-gas supply-cost methodologies
- Discount rate10% annuallyAER ST98 crude-oil and natural-gas methodologies
Data caveats: 16,543 rows have zero cleanup cost; 0 use the default decline rate; 0 have no operator name. Exact well-level operating expenses are not public.
Annual solvency table
All CSV wells remain in the denominator in every year.
| Year | Insolvent wells / total | Solvent wells / total | Composition |
|---|